Daily Market Outlook, October 31, 2025
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
Munnelly’s Macro Minute…
US stock futures saw an uptick as strong earnings from Amazon and Apple reignited investor confidence, injecting fresh energy into the global market rally after a brief pause. Futures tied to the S&P 500 climbed 0.7%, while Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 1.2%, bouncing back from Thursday's dip caused by weakness in major tech stocks. Apple shares rose in after-hours trading following better-than-expected revenue and a promising forecast for the holiday season. Meanwhile, Amazon soared 13% after reporting its fastest cloud revenue growth in nearly three years. Adding to the optimism, Nvidia announced exciting new AI partnerships with South Korea's leading conglomerates. In Asia, markets started strong but mostly flattened out by the end of the session. Japan's Nikkei 225 stood out, surging 1.9% to hit a record high. However, stock indices in mainland China and Hong Kong slipped around 1%, while European futures hinted at a slightly weaker start. Elsewhere in the markets, gold dropped 0.5%, marking its fourth decline in five sessions. Treasury yields and the dollar index held steady, while the Japanese yen gained strength after Tokyo's inflation data came in hotter than expected, prompting government officials to keep a close eye on currency fluctuations amid recent market turbulence. Thursday's trading session on Wall Street had seen some pullback in large-cap tech names. Microsoft shares dipped after releasing lacklustre earnings, and Nvidia faced pressure following comments from former President Donald Trump, who clarified that discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping did not include approval for Blackwell chip exports to China. This dampened hopes for a quick resolution on export restrictions.
The ECB Governing Council press conference highlighted that a concise written press release might have sufficed, as key policy settings remained unchanged and there was no pre-commitment to future actions. Policy is considered to be in a "good place," with the only notable update being a slight improvement in the outlook as some downside risks to growth have diminished. This improvement is attributed to factors such as the US-EU trade deal over the summer, the Middle-East ceasefire, and recent progress in US-China trade negotiations. Meanwhile, the inflation outlook remains "broadly balanced", making the case for a near-term rate cut difficult to justify. Ahead of the meeting, Q3 euro area GDP growth was reported at 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, slightly above consensus expectations but consistent with survey indicators. Currently, the euro area does not appear to be the source of major economic surprises.
With no resolution in sight for the US government shutdown, what was expected to be a busy week for labour market data is now shaping up to be relatively sparse. However, the monthly ADP report on private sector employment (Wednesday), which has shown three negative months out of the last four, will still be released. The ISM surveys for manufacturing (Monday) and services (Wednesday) are likely to draw heightened attention due to the lack of other key data. Additionally, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index is set for release on Friday. That said, updates on trade, job openings, durable goods, initial jobless claims, and the monthly employment report may be absent from the schedule.
In the euro area, the spotlight will be on German data, with factory orders (Wednesday), industrial production (Thursday), and trade figures (Friday) all expected. Meanwhile, China's trade data is also due on Friday, alongside the final October S&P Global PMIs for manufacturing (Monday) and services (Wednesday), which will cover multiple regions.
The latest round of central bank meetings continues this week, though significant policy changes are not anticipated. No adjustments are expected from the Reserve Bank of Australia (Tuesday), the Riksbank (Wednesday), or Norges Bank (Thursday). The Bank of England is forecasted to maintain the Bank Rate at 4% (Thursday), although earlier in the week, markets had priced in as much as a 30% chance of a rate cut. Our expectation is that the Monetary Policy Committee will hold rates steady this time, albeit with a divided vote.
Overnight Headlines
Xi Calls For Stable Supply Chains After Sealing Truce With Trump
China Tariff Probe To Continue Despite Trump–Xi Deal, USTR Says
China Mfg PMI Falls To 49.0 In Oct, Longest Slump In Nearly A Decade
Tokyo Inflation Quickens To 2.8%, Supporting Case For BoJ Hike
Federal Reserve To Cut Bank Supervision Staff By 30%
UK PM Starmer Puts Labour MPs On Notice For Budget Tax Rises
UK Regulator Threatens Algo Audits On Tech Giants To Protect Children
Apple Expects Big December Quarter On iPhone Upgrades
Amazon Shares Surge On 13% Revenue Jump, Strong Cloud Sales
Meta Defies AI Spending Gloom With Record-Breaking Bond Sale
Netflix Announces 10-for-1 Stock Split To Benefit Employees
Coinbase Q3 Sales Climb As Trading Volumes Rise
Nissan Projects $1.8B Operating Loss For Fiscal 2025
Hezbollah Is Rearming, Putting Israel–Lebanon Ceasefire At Risk
Metsera At Centre Of Novo, Pfizer Bidding War For Obesity Breakthrough
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
EUR/USD: 1.1715 (EU766.5m), 1.2250 (EU640m), 1.1322 (EU626.3m)
USD/JPY: 152.50 ($1.42b), 140.00 ($1.2b), 143.00 ($820m)
USD/BRL: 5.4500 ($1.41b), 5.3500 ($1.1b), 5.5000 ($982.8m)
AUD/USD: 0.6600 (AUD888.1m), 0.6240 (AUD480m), 0.6107 (AUD401.6m)
USD/CAD: 1.3500 ($1.09b), 1.3850 ($1.03b), 1.3950 ($945m)
GBP/USD: 1.3250 (GBP314.3m)
EUR/GBP: 0.8895 (EU309.3m)
USD/CNY: 7.7550 ($490m), 7.0900 ($350m)
CFTC Positions as of the Week Ending 9/10/25
October 1, 2025: During the shutdown of the federal government, Commitments of Traders Reports will not be published
Technical & Trade Views
SP500
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 6882 Target 6923
Below 6872 Target 6721
EURUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Below 1.1608 Target 1.1510
Above 1.1625 Target 1.1663
GBPUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Below 1.33 Target 1.3085
Above 1.33 Target 1.3369
USDJPY
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Below 153 Target 151.93
Above 153.11 Target 155.13
XAUUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 3975 Target 4095
Below 3965 Target 3860
BTCUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 113k Target 118k
Below 112k Target 107k
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!