Crude Falls Despite Trump's Iran Threats
Trump Threatens Iran
Oil prices have dropped sharply on Friday with the futures market down around WHAT. The decline is partly a function of the rally we’ve seen in USD this week with the Dollar Index breaking out to its highest levels since early 2025 ahead of the keenly awaited US NFP report this afternoon. Indeed, the move lower comes despite no signs of progress on the US/Iran peace-front. In fact, tensions are rising into the weekend on news that Trump is readying around 10,000 soldiers to be deployed to the Middle East as Trump warns that he will hit Iran harder. There have been reports on news wires today citing a story that Trump has told political aides that he will resume a full bombing campaign against Iran after the US midterms on Nov 3rd.
Oil Flows Improving
Despite the clear risks of a fresh escalation in the conflict, crude prices continue lower for now boosted by recent news that output from the region has almost entirely recovered to pre-war levels. The return of the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia as well as a pickup in flows through the Strait of Hormuz have helped output levels rally recently. However, uncertainty remains and news this week of three tankers being attacked in the Strait mean that flows could dry up once again if tensions rise and the transit is deemed too risky.
Technical Views
Crude
The sell off in crude is keeping price below the 95.06 level for now, though still supported by the bull channel lows. While the channel holds, a fresh upside push cannot be ruled out with 104.26 the next bull target. If we break the channel, however, focus turns to 84.60 as first support to watch.
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