In this quite uneventful week, the main focus of the markets is on inflation report in the United States for October, which is slated for release today. The report is expected to show a rise of consumer prices by 5.8% YoY, with a higher reading likely prompting reassessment of expectations of how quickly the Fed can roll back stimulus and tighten policy. Markets are also closely watching the news related to appointment of the next head of the Fed.

The dollar went up on Wednesday after a relatively weak start to the week as market participants are probably trying to factor in “overshoot” in CPI. Technically, the dollar index remains in a well-formed bullish channel. On the daily chart, one can see consolidation around the level 94.50 and frequent attempts to break out from the beginning of October with a clear “higher highs” pattern:

Foreign exchange volatility remains subdued as the week of central bank meetings has passed and there are few catalysts for strong moves this week. However, activity in the foreign exchange market could pick up if today's report shows again that consumer price growth in the US has accelerated. The consensus forecast assumes that headline inflation jumped from 5.4% to 5.8%, while core inflation changed from 4.0% to 4.3%.

It's not often that you see 0.4% gain in the CPI forecast between two consecutive months, which suggests that markets may be more sensitive to undershoot rather than overshoot of the forecast. The move of inflation beyond the 6% mark will most likely trigger a rise in the dollar and a sell-off in bonds, as market participants may start to price in the Fed's shift to a more aggressive pace of phasing out stimulus measures.

Today's data on the Chinese economy has heightened concerns that price pressures at the start of production chains could jeopardize the country's economic recovery. The Producer Price Index (PPI) again beat the forecast and amounted to 13.5%:

At the same time, consumer prices rose by only 1.5%, indicating that companies are facing huge pressure on margins and may at some point be forced to cut production volumes. The PBOC is expected to announce monetary measures to support the economy soon, as inflation still allows it.