Key Economic Events and Reports for the Week Ahead
US retail sales report and CPI release for September have significantly increased the chances that the Fed will begin to cut stimulus in November. Therefore, the dollar has good prospects for growth next week against currencies where low interest rates prevail, in particular against the Japanese yen and the euro.
Data on China's GDP and industrial production, which will be published on Monday, will help investors to better understand the prospects that global economy will continue to expand at increasing rate.
On Wednesday, inflation data will appear for the three leading economies - the EU, Britain and Canada. Markets are worried about cost inflation and consumer inflation data will help gauge how quickly these apprehensions are becoming true.
On Thursday, the index of manufacturing activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and existing homes sales data for September will help to assess economic expansion in the US.
The Central Bank of Russia will decide on the interest rate next Friday. Due to the risks of runaway consumer inflation in Russia, the interest rate is expected to rise by 25 bp up to 7%. Carry trade investors are attempting to price in this outcome in advance as the Russian currency renews local lows against USD and EUR and this trend is expected to continue next week, thanks to subdued market volatility and favorable interest rate profile.
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