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Retail Sales Fall Again
The British Pound is coming under fresh selling pressure today on the back of the latest UK economic data released this morning. Retail sales were seen falling in negative territory again last month, printing -0.3%, well below the 0.5% the market was looking for. On the back of the heavy fall in inflation seen over the same month and the 0% preliminary Q3 GDP reading, the focus is growing sharper on BOE rate-cut expectations.
Shifting BOE View
At the last meeting, the BOE warned that there was stull more work to do on inflation and signalled that further tightening would likely be needed. However, on the back of the more than 2% drop in headline CPI YoY last month, traders now sense that the BOE tightening cycle is complete and have begun pricing in rate cuts over H1 2024.
Where to Sell GBP?
With UK recession risks once again in focus and traders now looking to gage the first expected BOE rate cut next year, GBP looks vulnerable to further downside near-term. Looking ahead, any incoming data misses should help drive heavier selling as will any dovish BOE commentary. Given the softer US Dollar we’re seeing currently, GBP looks a better short on the crosses where improved risk appetite is driving commodity currencies higher.
Technical Views
GBPAUD
The breakdown below the bull channel has yet to follow through. Price is currently being underpinned by the 1.8980 level and is caught in a range between that support and resistance at 1.9333. Current price action can be viewed as a head and shoulders pattern, however, suggesting room for a deeper move lower. Below 1.8980, bears can target 1.68 as the first objective.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.