Daily Market Outlook, November 11, 2026
Daily Market Outlook, November 11, 2026
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
Munnelly’s Macro Missive - Hot CPI Tests the Bulls, but AI Optimism Absorbs the Blow
Global equity benchmarks pushed higher on Wednesday as an aggressive resurgence in artificial intelligence optimism overpowered the drag from a hotter-than-expected US inflation print. Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 1.5% and S&P 500 contracts added 0.6%, leading a worldwide recovery from Tuesday’s post-midterm regulatory jitters. Asia-Pacific bourses followed Wall Street's lead, lifting the MSCI Asia Pacific Index 1.6% to log its strongest two-day advance in over three months. The bid demonstrates that institutional capital remains eager to buy the dip across the digital infrastructure complex, as monetisation milestones validate the narrative.
The catalyst arrived via a flurry of blockbuster private-market AI headlines. CoreWeave delivered an upbeat infrastructure outlook, OpenAI reportedly crossed $10bn in quarterly revenue for the first time, and reports surfaced that investment banks are discussing a staggering $1.5tn+ initial valuation for Anthropic’s prospective IPO. The prints directly countered last week's capex scepticism, proving that revenue growth from frontier models is accelerating rather than merely theoretical. However, the market remains sharply discerning: while South Korea’s Kospi rallied up to 1.6% on Samsung and SK Hynix demand, Japan’s SoftBank dropped 8% following substantial quarterly losses and datacenter-related write-downs—penalising balance-sheet strain over operational execution.
This equity euphoria sharply contrasts with fixed-income realities. Benchmark US 2-year Treasury yields spiked 17 bps on Tuesday—their largest single-day surge in 19 months—as short-duration desks aggressively rebuilt Federal Reserve tightening premium. Money markets now heavily discount a 25 bps rate hike at the December FOMC, with tail risk pricing a larger move. October headline CPI printed at 0.4% m/m (0.350% unrounded vs. 0.3% expected), while core CPI advanced 0.3% m/m (0.296% unrounded vs. 0.2% expected), underpinned by stubborn persistence across shelter (+0.31%), core services (+0.35%), and recreation (+0.82%).
Crucially, the absence of official year-on-year CPI figures—due to data voids from the October 2025 government shutdown—masks an uncomfortably hot underlying trend. Accounting for negative base effects from last year's gasoline drop, adjusted headline CPI sits near 4.0% y/y (up from 3.74%), with core drifting toward 2.8%. With the core index needing to print flat next month simply to prevent further annual acceleration, financial conditions easing via soaring tech multiples directly complicates Chair Kevin Warsh's disinflation fight.
In commodities, Brent crude rebounded above $92/bbl following a two-day slide as traders reassessed the diplomatic timeline surrounding Iran. While crude trading comfortably below autumn peaks of $115/bbl provides structural disinflationary relief, October’s CPI details demonstrate that domestic services and shelter persistence are decoupling from energy moves, limiting the Fed’s ability to pivot dovish.
Across the Atlantic, Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli signaled a preference for policy gradualism, pointing toward February rather than December for the next MPC rate move. Lombardelli noted that the UK labor market slowdown is characterized by a freeze in hiring rather than layoffs, while warning that structurally declining labor mobility risks impairing productivity and capping the economy's speed limit. Gilt desks now look to Thursday's UK Q3 GDP and industrial production data to test the BoE's tightening resolve. In Europe, speeches from the ECB's Martins Kazaks, Joachim Nagel, and Christine Lagarde will be parsed to confirm market pricing for a 25 bps December hike followed by a pause.
Macro to Micro: The cross-asset landscape is confronting a profound paradox: surging AI liquidity is actively easing financial conditions at the exact moment a 0.4% monthly US CPI print demands monetary tightening. With 2-year Treasuries repricing aggressively and December Fed hike odds hardening, equities are running directly into a higher-for-longer hurdle rate. For traders, immediate tactical focus centers on US 2-year yield consolidation during the Veterans Day liquidity lull, CoreWeave and Anthropic headline follow-through, post-earnings dispersion across Asian tech, and tomorrow’s UK growth figures to evaluate whether central-bank hawkishness will once again cap the tech rally.
Overnight Headlines
US Tsy Sec Bessent Moved To Military Base In Wake Of Iranian Threats
IRGC Navy Says Third Tanker Struck Sea Mine In Strait Of Hormuz
Qatari PM: Doha Secured Two-Week Window To Prevent US Attack On Iran
US Charges Three Over Alleged Iranian Plot Against UK RAF Base
Iran Producing 50 Missiles Per Month Despite Crippled Industry
Zelenskiy: Pleased With Efforts, Messages From US Envoys To End War
Drone Attack Sparks Fire At Russia’s Ust-Luga Port, Injures Three
US-China To Advance AI Risk Dialogue At Nov 18–19 Summit
Hot US Inflation Fuels Fears Of Larger Fed Rate Hike, Bonds Sell Off
Fed’s Goolsbee Calls Oct CPI Report ‘Borderline Disturbing’
Fed’s Bowman Says More Work Needed To Control Inflation
ECB’s Lane: Rate Outlook Hinges On Second-Round Inflation Effects
BoC Minutes Show Rate Hike Aimed At Mitigating Inflation Risks
Japan Manufacturers’ Sentiment Hits Five-Year High On Chip Demand
Australia’s Q3 Home Loan Values Fall Record 15.5%, Worse Than Forecast
Banks Turn To Credit Insurance As AI Lending Approaches Limits
OpenAI Revenue Rises To $10B But Heavy Losses Persist
Anthropic Bankers Reportedly Eye IPO Valuation Of $1.5T Or More
Nvidia Spy Scandal Exposes Singapore’s Role In China’s AI Chip Trade
Alibaba’s Chip Unit Files HK Listing; SoftBank Fall 10% After $7B Loss
Technical & Trade Views
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!