Daily Market Outlook, April 11, 2023
Markets Return From Holidays With A Relatively Upbeat Start, Bitcoin Above 30k
Asian equities traded with an upbeat tone to start the holiday shortened trading week, with most major money centres coming back online overnight, the uptick in risk sentiment was supported by a late upturn on Wall Street. Overnight the Nikkei 225 rescaled the 28k handle with index investors taking Yen weakness as a positive for stocks, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were less buoyant with Hong Kong playing catch-up, whilst the on land index was capped as cooling inflation data was coupled with additional geopolitical risk seen in further escalation of tensions over Taiwan. Bitcoin saw a decent rally over the extended holiday weekend ticking over 30k for the first time since June 2022, with investors seeking additional diversification given recent banking system turbulence.
It is a quiet start to the week in terms of the data docket, in the Eurozone, investors will parse Sentix investor confidence survey set for release this morning. The measure has seen improvement in sentiment in recent reports, although as is the case with most sentiment surveys, the incremental improvements are coming from very depressed levels so investors are currently choosing to discount the data, another factor that investors will be paying close attention to is the possibility for disappointments in the data related to concerns around the banking sector crisis, which although seemingly contained has left some participants concerned about future turmoil. Data delivered from some European constituent countries suggests the potential for a decline in March Eurozone retail sales also released this morning.
Stateside investors will eye the NFIB small business indicator as a timely gauge on this key part of the US economy, as with the Eurozone, US investors will be keen to see the impact of recent banking concerns. Markets will also hear from one of the newer members of the FOMC with Chicago Federal Reserve President Goolsbee scheduled to speak later today, his perspective on current US economic conditions will be a fresh perspective, however, as an active voter this year his comments will be an additional input into the committees views on fiscal conditions as markets set up to digest tomorrows key US inflation release.
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(In bold represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
EUR/USD: 1.0760 (EU1.81B), 1.0800 (EU1.42B), 1.0600 (EU1.35B)
USD/JPY: 130.00 ($1.83B), 133.00 ($1.07B), 125.15 ($698M)
AUD/USD: 0.6625 (AUD672.5M), 0.6900 (AUD604.3M), 0.6773 (AUD450.3M)
USD/CNY: 6.8800 ($627M), 6.8000 ($600M), 6.8300 ($500.6M)
USD/CAD: 1.3400 ($465.4M)
GBP/USD: 0.9430 (GBP500.2M), 1.3135 (GBP465.9M), 1.1105 (GBP349.4M)
USD/MXN: 18.35 ($358.1M)
USD/BRL: 5.0000 ($515M), 5.2570 ($418.5M), 5.3175 ($413.7M)
EUR/GBP: 0.8890 (EU536.6M)
Overnight News of Note
Bitcoin Breaks Above $30k For First Time Since June 2022
Stocks Climb Amid Buoyant Sentiment Tuesday; US Dollar Slips
China’s Consumer Inflation Slows, Producer Prices Fall Further
Bank Of Korea Leaves Key Rate Unchanged As Expected
New BoJ Chief Ueda Backs Ultraeasy Policy As He Takes Helm
China May Keep Injecting Cash Via MLF At Unchanged Rate - Daily
Fed's Williams: Not Worried By Divergent Market View On Rate Policy
Fed's Williams Doubts Monetary Policy Spiked Banking Sector Stress
ECB Isn’t Done Hiking Rates If Baseline Holds, De Cos Says
Italy To Cut 2024 GDP Growth Target To 1.4% VS Previous 1.9%
Oil Rises As US Stockpiles May Drop, Demand Signs Stay Strong
Citigroup Sees Oil Falling Despite OPEC Efforts To Prop Near $80
Stocks Climb Amid Buoyant Sentiment Tuesday; US Dollar Slips
Warren Buffett Says He Intends To Add To Japanese Stock Holdings
Boeing Targets 2025 For Return To Pre-Crisis 737 MAX Production Rates
(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)
Technical & Trade Views
SP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4080
Primary support is 4000
Primary objective is 4207
Below 3985 opens 3950
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
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EURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0930
Primary support is 1.07
Primary objective is 1.1128
Below 1.0700 opens 1.0660
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
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GBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.24
Primary support is 1.2250
Primary objective 1.2659
Below 1.22 opens 1.2010
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
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USDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 133.00
Primary resistance is 135.15
Primary objective is 129.15
Above 136 opens 137.90
20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
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AUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .6696
Primary resistance is .6740
Primary objective is .6950
Below .6560 opens .6450
20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish
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BTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 29000 - Target Hit, New Pattern
Primary support 23000
Primary objective is 30500
Below 23000 opens 22400
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!